Economist
M.Sc. Strategic & Technology Management · Specialist in Quantitative Finance
Economics, strategy and capital markets.
Quantitative research, economic models, econometrics and financial analysis to interpret macroeconomic dynamics, find patterns, identify signals and build evidence applied to capital markets.
Based in Buenos Aires, Argentina
Notes on rates, macro and market structure.
Short, self-contained pieces. Each states its question, its method and the data it stands on — so the reasoning can be audited, not just the conclusion.
- 01
The Strategic Failure
Why Argentina had industrial policy but not strategy, and what should be visible in the capital market if that were true.
- 02
EURUSD price profiling: a statistical characterization before any hypothesis
18 descriptive analyses of EURUSD over 1,439,786 M1 bars (2022-2025), audited against a false-discovery-rate correction on the 101 tests run across the line. A document about method, not a signal.
- 03
A Solid Programme and a Fragile Catalogue
What survives of behavioral economics once it is measured outside the lab, and what that implies for investment decisions.
- 04
The Innovation That Never Reaches the Books
Why we mismeasure innovative effort in service economies, and what changes when we redraw the accounting boundary.
Data describes. Method makes it understandable.
Every analysis begins with a specific question, defines the evidence required and states its limitations before reaching a conclusion.
My method combines economic and financial research with business intelligence, statistics and quantitative analysis. The work begins by framing the problem, identifying the relevant variables and actors, and developing a hypothesis about the mechanisms that may explain the observed outcome.
Data is integrated, cleaned and tested to detect trends, anomalies and regime shifts. A signal, however, is never interpreted in isolation. It is examined within its macroeconomic, productive, institutional and financial context, connecting policies and incentives with the real economy, expectations and market prices.
An insight becomes useful when it clarifies what changed, why it may have changed and under which conditions it could persist. Each conclusion is tested against alternative explanations and translated into scenarios, risks and concrete decision implications—without claiming more than the evidence can support.
Eight steps from question to decision, grouped into three phases.
Question & framing
Frame the problem, identify the relevant variables and actors.
Hypothesis
Develop a hypothesis about the mechanisms that may explain the outcome.
Data integration
Integrate, clean and test the available data.
Detection
Trends, patterns, behaviors, anomalies and regime shifts.
Context
Macroeconomic, productive, institutional and financial — policies and incentives, the real economy, expectations and market prices.
Insight
What changed, why it may have changed, and under which conditions it could persist.
Validation
The conclusion is tested against alternative explanations.
- Survives — continues to 08
- Fails — returns to 03
Decision
Scenarios, risks and concrete decision implications — without claiming more than the evidence supports.
Watch a small open economy respond when policy moves.
This model shows how government spending, taxes and the money supply set output, the interest rate and the exchange rate in a small economy open to world capital. The IS curve stands for the whole goods market — consumption, investment and government spending together, not spending alone; LM stands for the money market; BP marks the combinations of output and interest rate that would keep the external sector balanced. All three have their own slope, and all three move: the exchange rate is precisely the variable that adjusts until the three curves cross at exactly the same point.
- IS — Investment-Saving
- Represents equilibrium in the market for goods and services.
- LM — Liquidity-Money
- Represents equilibrium in the money market.
- BP — Balance of Payments
- Represents equilibrium in the external sector, where the current account and the capital account net to zero.
Output: arbitrary units, not a real currency. Exchange rate: index points vs. neutral, not a percentage · 0 = neutral, + depreciation, − appreciation.
Starting point: output of 648, interest rate of 2.92%. Move any of the three controls below and watch all three curves shift together.
Method · Closed-form Mundell-Fleming (linear IS/LM/BP, imperfect capital mobility, floating exchange rate, small open economy). The three curves are solved as one simultaneous system — the exchange rate is the variable that makes them cross at exactly one point, not a diagnostic computed after the fact. Parameters are illustrative, fixed for teaching the mechanism — not estimated from data, not a forecast of any real economy. Being linear, the model has no zero lower bound: at extreme slider settings the interest rate can read below what any real central bank has ever set (post-2008 policy rates only ever reached about −0.5% to −0.9%) — that range is a property of the algebra, not a claim about how real economies behave at the limit.
From econometric method to systems that carry it.
Each stage exists because the previous one hit a limit that could not be solved with more of the same.
- 01
Economics and quantitative training
Macroeconomic theory, econometrics and predictive modelling. The methodological base: what an estimator can and cannot claim, and where identification breaks.
Method without data infrastructure does not reach a decision.
- 02
Business Intelligence & analytics
Analytical warehouses, ETL automation, star schemas and executive reporting — the layer that turns transactional records into a single source of truth.
A reliable warehouse still does not tell you what to do.
- 03
Financial analytics & capital markets
Econometric method applied to portfolios and valuation: rate sensitivity, scenario work and cash flow under uncertainty.
Analysis that lives in a notebook does not survive an organisation.
- 04
Data-driven products and platforms
Platforms that centralise the business picture — predictive analytics and dashboards operating as instruments, not decoration.
If a decision rests on a number nobody can trace, that is the conversation.
Consulting on quantitative research, financial analytics and the data architecture underneath both.